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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still